Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity

  • Harvard tracks the short-term outlook for home improvement spend.
  • The indicator, measured as an annual rate-of-change of its components, is designed to project the annual rate of change in spending for the current quarter and subsequent four quarters, and is intended to help identify future turning points in the business cycle of the home improvement and repair industry.
  • Right now a bottom is seen in Q3 2024. The trajectory is a big upgrade on their previous outlook.

Inequality in the UK

  • Nice page from IFS on how income inequality, living standards and poverty are evolving.
  • This one, in particular, is interesting – “Another way to see how income inequality has changed over time is the following chart – known as a ‘growth incidence curve’. This shows the average annual percentage growth in incomes at each percentile of the income distribution, for selected time periods.

S&P 59

  • The S&P 500’s total concentration, which we can measure using a Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (or HHI), is equivalent today to that of an equal-weighted, 59-stock portfolio. Ten years ago, the index was more than twice as diversified. We have never seen – over any 10-year period – a decline (or increase) in diversification of the magnitude we have just witnessed.
  • Source: GMO.
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